Modélisation de la Dynamique de Transmission de la Covid-19 en République Démocratique du Congo à l’Aide du Modèle SEIiRS à Six Classes
Auteur(s): Matondo Mananga Herman, Mangongo Tinda Yves, Mabela Matendo Rostin, Bopili Mbotia Richard, Efoto Eale LouisNom de la revue/Journal: Congo Sciences
Mois: novembre
Volume: 9
Numéro: 3
Année: 2021
pages: 125-134
Résumé
<p>The purpose of this paper was to study the transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in order to eliminate it. To this end, the SEIiRS model has been developed and proposed. In this model, the compartment I of SEIRS scheme is divided into two compartments: the compartment of symptomatic individuals and the compartment of asymptomatic individuals. Based on the data reported of DRC through the National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB) and WHO, we found a basic reproduction number more than unity (ℛ0>1), which ensures the endemicity of Covid-19 in DRC. Sensibility analysis shows that the parameters 𝛽 (contact rate), 𝜔 (recovery rate of asymptomatic individuals), 𝛿 (recovery rate of symptomatic individuals) and 𝜖 (efficacity of treatment rate) influence very significantly the spread of Covid-19 in DRC. Based on these parameters, we proposed some control strategies in order to eliminate Covid-19 in DRC in reasonable time.</p>